The Milwaukee Brewers are coming of of yet another successful regular season in 2024, finishing with a 93-69 record, putting them at top of the NL Central for the third time in four years. However, Milwaukee wasn’t able to capitalize on the NL Central crown, falling in the Wild Card series in three games to the New York Mets.

With 93 wins in 2024, Fangraphs is projecting Milwaukee to go 84-78 in 2025, dropping nine wins from their 2024 total. Why is Fangraphs so low on Milwaukee coming off of their 93-win season in 2024?

Fangraphs is a baseball statistics page that has advanced data and metrics for MLB players and teams.

First, it’s important to note that Fangraphs tends to project the Brewers to finish with a worse record in the upcoming year than the year prior. This could be because of Milwaukee’s modest payroll and lack of major off-season acquisitions throughout the years. 

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The model I will be using to look at past record projections for Milwaukee is the ZiPS Fangraphs model, developed by Dan Szymborski.

“The system uses statistics from the previous four years for players from ages 24-38, and it weighs more recent seasons heavier,” according to an MLB.Com article. “For younger or older players, it uses weighted statistics from only the previous three years. 

The system also factors velocities, injury data and play-by-play data into its equations.” 

Below, I have included Milwaukee’s projected records and actual records since 2018 from the ZiPS model per Fangrpahs. The projections start at the 2018 season due to that being the Brewers first playoff appearance at the time since 2011.

I left out the 2020 COVID-19 season due to there only being 60 games played and, therefore, a much smaller sample size.

ZIPS NL Central projected standings since 2018

As we can see, Milwaukee, throughout this six-year stretch, has exceeded win expectations five out of six possible seasons. During this time, Milwaukee has won 54 more games than expected. 

Milwaukee is projected to finish worse in 2025, possibly due to the departure of Willy Adames and the lack of projected third base production.

On Dec. 7, Willy Adames and the San Francisco Giants agreed to a seven-year, $182 million contract per Jeff Passan. In 2024, Adames accounted for 18% of the Brewers’ 177 home runs. Adames played in 548 games for Milwaukee over a four-year stretch. 

During that stretch, he had a .780 OPS or On base + Slugging percentage. He also had 113 Adjusted OPS (OPS+), including 107 home runs and 348 runs batted in. 

With Adames’ absence at shortstop, Milwaukee has question marks on the left side of the infield. In December, the Brewers dealt two-time All-Star Devin Williams to the New York Yankees for infielder Caleb Durbin and starting pitcher Nestor Cortes.

Durbin gives Milwaukee some infield depth as he is slated to get time at third base. With the acquisition, it appears Joey Ortiz will handle shortstop duties, barring any acquisitions or unforeseen circumstances.

Ortiz’s power will need to step up with the departure of Adames if the Brewers want to enjoy similar success at the shortstop position they received in 2024. 

With that being said, Ortiz’s rookie campaign was a solid one.

In 142 games, he accumulated 3.1 Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement (fWAR) and slashed for a .239/.329/.398 clip, which was good for a .726 OPS. Ortiz smashed 11 home runs and 25 doubles during that stretch as well. Ortiz exemplified patience at the plate and good contact skills throughout the year.

What Ortiz struggled most with was his pitch recognition and passiveness with pitches in the zone. While Ortiz was in the 89th percentile for whiff percentage and 83rd for walk percentage, he had a swing rate of just 39.2% and a zone swing percentage of 51.7. 

Per Fangraphs, the average swing percentage for batters in 2024 was 47%. Ortiz ranked dead last in zone swing percentage, watching the most pitches land in the zone. Ortiz, on the other hand, tied for the fifth-highest Zone-contact percentage at 92.7. 

If Ortiz is able to lift the ball more in 2025 (bottom two percentile in LA Sweet-Spot percentage in 2024) and improve his pitch recognition on pitches in the zone, he could make up for the loss of Adames in free agency.

The departure of Adames also creates a hole at third base. The Brewers are likely looking to employ internal options at the position. Durbin, Oliver Dunn, Tyler Black and Andruw Monasterio all seem to be in the battle for third base.

ZiPS is not a huge fan of this alignment, and it’s easy to see in their projections why they aren’t. This is a big factor in why the Brewers are projected to finish worse in 2025. Adames and Ortiz combined for a 7.9 fWAR. ZiPS predicts that production won’t be met in 2025.

The third base position for Milwaukee is projected to accumulate just 1.3 fWAR, tied for the lowest projection alongside first base. The model projects Black to finish with the highest OPS at .706 and OPS + at 97, respectively, at the third base position.

Black, in 315 minor league games, has produced solid numbers, hitting a .854 OPS and .402 OBP. During that stretch, Black has hit 37 home runs and 56 doubles. While Black’s defense is shaky, forcing him to move all around the field during his minor league career, he obtains great contact skills and gets on base at an elite clip.

Most likely, Milwaukee will find themselves shuffling through their plethora of young third base options as the season progresses but will look at Black to potentially see opportunities early on if his defense improves during spring training.

With the young and inexperienced nature of the MLB roster and the uncertainty surrounding the infield, the Brewers will have a chip on their shoulder heading into Opening Day, considering the 2025 ZiPS projections. 

Benes can be reached Beneseh8560@uwec.edu.